Re: Japan-China War Talk…

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Avatar photoHeath

War wont happen. A few skirmishes at worst, but for war to happen, one side must be convinced it can win; or one side must fear not entering war; and sides entering a war must feel they can survive it (otherwise surrender comes).

China, the US, and Japan have a lot of bilateral trade to be lost, they wont war on this basis alone. The rocky islets are about resources (geography is a resource, regardless whether specific resources have been proved to be within). What allows the issue to be disputed is that most of these islets were never properly governed in the past, and depending what approach you use, most sides can make claims. This means everybody creates an argument that stands on its own merits, but no-one can tally up with the others.

War though? Its not likely, but journalists rarely get paid to write an article that says “probably nothing will happen, so read something else”… haha