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This is a good one, which do tell something. the things i read on weibo is some of the protests speaks Mandarin， that is key!
why local people don’t speak local dialect?
Just published: Don’t Believe the Protest Hype
@ Charlie
That cartoon really does a great job of summing up why the public furor over this issue seems so embarrassingly overwrought. It’s also a good example of the backlash created by the unnecessary destructiveness of the protests.
My girlfriend was looking at the feed as info was coming in on Sunday and she said, ‘these guys think that they are the Red Guard.’ I think that is true in some ways – the angry youth are acting out a kind of passion play, based on how they imagine loyal patriots would act in a time of crisis. Also, similarly, it seems like the popular momentum has somewhat spiraled away from the control of the central authorities.
I had not heard that China Unicom sent that message out. Fomenting nationalism is a dangerous kind of pandering, and it is worrisome to see such politically charged rhetoric coming from a large institution. But I think that most of the most extremism is coming from the grass roots, and is not necessarily part of a coordinated plan.
Though it might seem counterintuitive, I don’t think the central government really wants people to keep fanning the flames quite so hard right at this point. I don’t think the government is thrilled about these kinds of demonstrations (despite their nationalist bent) – because the technocrats that hold sway over the direction of the party are largely pragmatists – and these public displays put party leadership in an awkward position. What they stand to gain by pushing the hawkish line demanded by the vocal (and violent) masses seems to be dwarfed by the potential economic and political consequences that the ongoing conflict that such a position would clearly lead to. I imagine some leaders wish this issue would just disappear. Surely some factions of the party are pleased. But undoubtedly all of them are paying very close attention.
These incidents are another piece of data in an organic experiment combining social media and the world’s largest population. In nationalism, or in Japan, we have discovered a clear catalyst.
Again, my hope is (and there seems to be some evidence to support the notion) that the extremism of public response is producing a counter current of moderation, like a whirling eddy within a fast flowing river.
I was impressed with the shirt of your colleague. It is not always easy to be a part of the counter current, and that kind of dissent deserves to be saluted.
to be fair the second photo doesn’t seem to be of a protest, unless it’s the military having a sit down protest over poorly fitting uniforms </attempt_at_humor>
I ‘heard’ they closed many of the shops downtown, so some big groups are at least shoppers hanging around.
though I guess the guys with banners, flags, and fists in the first photo aren’t just annoyed about the abrupt change in shop opening hours </another>
Does anyone know when is Ito Yokado re-openning?
Do you think there business will be adversely affected by the protests?
Quote:Does anyone know when is Ito Yokado re-openning?nope.
Quote:Do you think there business will be adversely affected by the protests?of course.
I saw this: Reuters article
“Police headed off a crowd of at least 2,000 protesters who were trying to charge the U.S. consulate in the southwestern city of Chengdu. Protesters said they wanted the United States “to listen to their voices”.
I wonder if 2,000 is right, and what constitutes ‘trying to charge’. Did anyone see for themselves?
I also wonder if the people in the Consulate were thinking about what happened to Christopher Stevens just 5 days earlier. I have to say, I think I would have been.
I think Ito Yokado’s business will probably return to normal soon after they re-open. Chinese consumers have not shown that their purchasing patterns are really effected by occasional outbursts of extremist rhetoric. During the protests two years ago, Ito Yokado was thronged with angry protestors shouting slogans and holding signs… and just a few weeks later it was thronged with calm consumers, filling carts and buying goods.
Quote:to be fair the second photo doesn’t seem to be of a protest, unless it’s the military having a sit down protest over poorly fitting uniformsHundreds of riot police sitting in Chengdu’s commercial center with shields and batons is certainly protest related. It’s quite a sight, I haven’t seen anything like that since the Xinjiang uprisings a few years ago when police were patrolling Chunxi Lu with assault rifles.
Quote:I wonder if 2,000 is right, and what constitutes ‘trying to charge’. Did anyone see for themselves?I was going to pass the US consulate in a taxi but the road was shut down because of protestors. It didn’t make sense for them to be protesting at the US Consulate, later I heard that they were marching across the city and had begun at that location. Maybe someone else got a better look at what happened at the consulate.
Quote:I also wonder if the people in the Consulate were thinking about what happened to Christopher Stevens just 5 days earlier. I have to say, I think I would have been.A few things that are vastly different from this situation and Libya:
In Libya you’re dealing with a citizenry who is armed and battle-hardened, attacking a facility with minimal security. China is totally unarmed and the US Consulate in Chengdu is virtually a fortress, which undoubtedly has layers upon layers of security protocols to keep it safe. China would never allow a US Consulate to fall under attack, especially when the target of these protests is Japan. My understanding is that the Japanese Consulate in Beijing hasn’t been damaged although that is obviously among the biggest targets in China right now.
If I were in the consulate I wouldn’t feel in danger, although Chris Stevens’ death is definitely shocking. Nothing like that has happened in several decades.
yes, I quite agree. and by the same account Chinese consumers won’t feel any obligation to compensate these businesses for the lost revenue during the closed period. they won’t shop there twice as much next week because they didn’t this week.
so their income – business will have been adversely effected.
Thank you for drawing that important distinction between the consulate protest here, and the ones that we have seen recently in the Middle East.
if you’re talking about the American consulate on Sunday.
I was there after I came from work around lunch time. It was very busy, but nothing serious was going on.
There were actually many more police officers than protesters. now and then people showed a banner and shouted for a bit, then went quiet again. Many people were taking photo’s and the police was very relaxed.
I could actually walk all the way around the block and walk up to the blockade from the other side past the consulate. took some more photo’s and then the protesters had left and the police broke up the blockade and left.
Quote:Do you think there business will be adversely affected by the protests?NO! It’s the middle classes dropping ? in these stores to begin with, and they couldn’t give a *#@* about some far away islands.
Brave Chengdu, reading your remarks I get the feeling you have something to say, but aren’t saying it. Is there a nationalist in you dying to get out?
What’s hilarious about the demonstration through the Chunxi Road area today (and no doubt everywhere else) is that it was obviously on a timetable that the authorities were aware of. Police started systematically shutting roads off just before midday today, making sure the flag bearers had free passage.
They especially made way for this guy…
When I was there on Sunday, there was little going on, see my post here. But the protests went on today (Tuesday) in earnest again. Although there was no violence reported and a heavy police presence, the protesters managed to take the overpasses (or were allowed to do so), but the police still had Tianfu and Chunxi Lu mostly cordoned off. I guess the shops will be closed until the SMS from Unicom stop …
Fascinating breakdown of the situation by Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting, Inc.) summarized below.
China’s Limits in Reducing Tension With Japan
Some 1,000 Chinese fishing vessels are reportedly on their way to the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands after the end of a Chinese ban on fishing and an announcement by the Chinese fisheries administration that it will provide protection and assistance for Chinese finishing boats around the disputed islands. The boats set sail as large (and at times violent) anti-Japanese protests spread throughout Chinese cities, leading several Japanese companies to announce at least temporary suspensions of operations in China.
To make matters worse, this event is taking place just days ahead of the 81st anniversary of the Mukden Incident, which triggered Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in the years leading up to World War II. But as the Chinese government rallies the population and stirs nationalist fervor to distract the public from domestic affairs, Beijing may soon find itself unable to back down from the dispute.
A Useful Distraction
Beijing quickly seized upon the Japanese government’s Sept. 12 decision to buy three of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (there are five total) from their private Japanese owner in order to shift national attention away from China’s domestic problems. These include the upcoming generational leadership transition, slowing economic growth, increased public awareness of corruption in the Communist Party and government and growing international criticism of China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea. Keeping Chinese citizens focused on the perennial Japanese “aggressor” helped to distract them from the numerous issues at home.
The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Dispute
Anti-Japanese protests quickly broke out in Chinese cities, often with the assistance of the local governments and security forces. The demonstrations grew to massive proportions over the weekend, affecting at least 85 cities across China. In major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Nanjing, protesters marched outside Japanese diplomatic compounds amid a heavy security presence, which largely prevented violence. In Xian, one of the cities that led anti-Japanese protests in 2005 and 2010, tens of thousands of people marched to the city’s center on the morning of Sept. 15. The protest turned violent as Japanese-made cars were overturned and smashed and Japanese restaurants and shops were attacked. In the southern city of Changsha, protesters set fires in the streets and attacked and looted a large Japanese-owned department store. The scene was similar in a number of other cities, including Qingdao, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
Although the government and official media outlets have maintained the steady stream of strong, patriotic and at times inflammatory rhetoric, the government is now trying to regain control over the protests. The official Xinhua news agency published an article Sept. 17 entitled “Wisdom Needed in the Expression of Patriotism,” which warned the public to be rational and obey the law during protests. Some local public security bureaus are also beginning to take a stronger approach to dealing with the protesters. Guangzhou’s public security bureau announced Sept. 17 that at least 10 rioters had been detained by police forces after they smashed Japanese vehicles and vandalized Japanese shops. In Xian, public gatherings, demonstrations and marches lacking official approval are now strictly prohibited. But the state continues to make numerous statements concerning its rights to the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and highlighting Japan’s purported violation of Chinese sovereignty.
Problems with Backing Down
A major problem for China is that the government has framed the Japanese move not as an administrative action that simply shifted ownership of the islands from a private Japanese citizen to the government (which had already been renting the islands to ensure that nobody was allowed to build or land on them), but rather as the Japanese taking something that was under Chinese control. In fact, the islands have long been under Japanese — not Chinese — control, but portraying the issue in this manner served domestic political needs. Chinese officials, who have stirred up the protests and declared that they will defend Chinese sovereignty, now find that their ability to de-escalate the situation is limited since any de-escalation could be seen as weakness and capitulation to the Japanese.
Beijing has already warned that there will be economic ramifications if Japan does not back down on its claim to the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Nearly a quarter of all Japanese overseas non-manufacturing enterprises are in China, and Japanese exports to China in 2011 amounted to $161.4 billion. Additionally, Chinese tourists account for more than 40 percent of foreign tourists to Japan. However, China would not be unaffected by a serious economic conflict with Japan. China had a $22 billion trade surplus with Japan in 2011, while Japanese firms account for 4 percent of incoming foreign direct investment in China and Japanese businesses directly employ one million Chinese workers. Attacks on Japanese cars and businesses also harm the Chinese citizens who own and operate many of them, and several Japanese companies are now considering temporarily suspending operations in China — or worse, reducing or ending such operations, which could lead companies from other countries to follow suit.
Another problem for Beijing is that, as in previous waves of anti-Japanese protests, the protests may begin with patriotic fervor but they can quickly take on a mob mentality or provide an opening for demonstrations against other issues, such as government corruption and social grievances. Already there are signs of this — though sporadic — in the current protests. Anti-government forces or citizens looking to bring their own issues to the table can exploit the mass of individuals on the streets — something Beijing is much less willing to tolerate. Attempts to rein in protests, if too aggressive, can quickly shift attention away from Japan and the island dispute and toward the Chinese government itself.
Beijing knows Tokyo will not change its administrative control over the islands, even if Japanese officials attempt to reduce tensions by seeking fisheries and other economic talks with Taiwan or China. And both sides have, at least thus far, shown some restraint by sending coast guard and fisheries administration ships to the islands instead of naval vessels. For China’s leadership, there is a benefit to keeping the patriotic protests active and keeping the Diaoyu/Senkaku issue front and center, at least until the leadership transition is complete next March. But the longer the protests are allowed to go on, the more likely they are to change focus and the more likely Beijing is to lose control of them. Yet, by framing the issue as one of active Japanese usurpation of Chinese territory, it is difficult to see where and how Beijing can step back without being seen as weak by the Chinese people. And at a time of political transition, being seen as weak is not something the Communist Party can allow.
indeed. the end game here is not pretty. And international law does have precedents for these types of conflicts. The islands have been under de facto Japanese control since the late 19th century, with a small break after WWII when the US controlled the islands. There is no evidence of true control or sovereignty over the islands by any nation, including Japan and China. The only “nation” that can claim historical control is the Kingdom of 流求国, or Ryukyu, a kingdom that flourished in the late Ming and Qing Dynasties.
Ryukyu ruled over the islands around Okinawa, Asami, and Taiwan (which included the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands). This kingdom traded with the Ming and paid tribute and had a strong and friendly relationship with the Chinese for two centuries. The Ming never made Ryukyu a part of China. Japan invaded and conquered the islands and eventually made Ryukyu a province, with Okinawa as the major island.
Peep Wiki for a primer. But I urge people to check out the relationship between the kingdom and its larger neighbors. If anything, we learn that China was a calm, friendly, positive force upon the kingdom, whereas Japan was a belligerent invader.
Nevertheless, unless we can dig up some old Ryukyuans, the control of the province goes to Japan. To take the islands from Japan would call into question every single piece of land ever acquired by force. ie the entire planet.
But there is something to be learned here. The roles seem to be reversed: Japan has had a hands off policy towards the Diaoyu Islands, whereas China has unilaterally laid claim to the islands citing “ancient times” as the primary legal foundation. If China could remember what it was like to be a great civilization, a positive force for growth and exchange, then perhaps a third way could be found:
mutual trade and development of the region between the three main parties, with a tri-partite commission to oversee the extraction of resources. Think of the possibilities of cooperation between China, Taiwan and Japan. The islands could go from a flashpoint to a mechanism for a long overdue rapproachment between three of Asia’s greatest countries. Someone get Lao Xi on the phone.
Quote:Brave Chengdu, reading your remarks I get the feeling you have something to say, but aren’t saying it. Is there a nationalist in you dying to get out?@ Brendan
I’ve said what I mean to say. I’ve questioned the things I mean to question. Where I’ve wanted to see an example I’ve asked for one. I’ve answered questions as directly as I could. I’ve commented where I thought it might be worth commenting. I’ve tried to be clear and polite as possible
As I have done on this forum for a while. As I notice others seem to have the freedom to do.
I don’t see what in this case has singled me out for attention. As you’ve singled me out maybe it would be polite for you to say why.
Maybe it’s you who want to say something but aren’t?
If you want to accuse me of been nationalistic, I’m quite ok with that accusation. I’d politely request:
1) examples of my overtly nationalistic behavior
2) that you identify which nation you think I’m been overtly nationalistic towards.
Otherwise I’d respectfully request you return to commenting on the topic, not me.
@Brave @Brendan
I read through Brave’s comments and didn’t see anything but reason and heartfelt concern. Just sayin.
@Brave Chengdu, I was being ironic, so apologies for giving you any other impression. I have no idea your nationality, so can’t begin to assume any such directive.
You did touch on something I was hoping to draw further on though, and that’s also been pointed out in the Stratfor summary… What if the masses gathering do actually find a voice within, and what if those soldiers sat outside department stores do start to bemoan ill fitting uniforms, and any other number of contentions with current regimes within China. When I started this thread, it was because I had asked myself this very same question as I watched the soldiers marching through empty streets and dispersed shoppers. Looking at the balance of power within China itself, and the ability to rally millions of people (both inside and out of these realms of power) in rapid time, it’s easy to see the very real danger of citizens (and those in positions of power or subordinance) asking themselves (and each other) ‘where does this go’, and ‘how does this affect me’, again referencing my initial post. In the short term this isn’t a likelihood, all concerned will remain preoccupied with their own entities, but if this were to continue over a prolonged period, people will gradually begin to question the position they find themselves in.
We all have a judgement of some degree, and mine had been the absolute disappointment in seeing so many people rally to the ’cause’. I understand this is fueled by an underlying discontent amongst the younger generations, who are seizing the opportunity to vent, so it stands to reason they will at least in part at some point figure out they could be directing their anger in a different path. That’s the scenario that’s perhaps most frightening, and one that the government will clearly exert the most decisive force over. The posturing of power is something we’ve seen all too often within China, but for some reason as I watched the parading take place on Sunday, I had a very strong sense of the question ‘What if this was real?’. I’m very undecided at this precise moment as to whether this will escalate to something else (be it inside or out of China), or if in fact it will just fizzle by the end of the week, and people will just gradually slide back towards residing in the status quo.
Quote:Think of the possibilities of cooperation between China, Taiwan and Japan. The islands could go from a flashpoint to a mechanism for a long overdue rapproachment between three of Asia’s greatest countries. Someone get Lao Xi on the phone.As real world absurd a likelihood as that is, it also makes plain and perfect sense, and if we were really talking everyones best interests, there’s the answer right there. I’m genuinely deeply disheartened at how quickly people can be misdirected from the very things that would benefit them most.
History repeating.
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