{"id":6927,"date":"2012-11-27T22:21:46","date_gmt":"2012-11-27T14:21:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chengduliving.com\/?p=6927"},"modified":"2012-11-28T13:36:26","modified_gmt":"2012-11-28T05:36:26","slug":"why-china-will-never-rule-the-world-interview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chengduliving.com\/why-china-will-never-rule-the-world-interview\/","title":{"rendered":"Why China Will Never Rule the World: The Interview"},"content":{"rendered":"

I read a few books about China each year, usually based upon reviews that I’ve read online or recommendations<\/a> from friends. While reading blogs is insightful and a daily practice, I find that reading long form material is essential to acquiring a deep understanding of the intricacies of China. So about a year ago when I caught wind of a book titled Why China Will Never Rule the World<\/a><\/em>, I was immediately drawn to it. The title was so bold that I felt like a great onus was on the author, Troy Parfitt, to convince readers of his controversial claim: that China’s apparent rise<\/a> is not what it appears to be.<\/p>\n

Many of us in Chengdu have spent years witnessing the explosive growth of a megalopolis, and we wonder<\/a> – what does China’s future look like?<\/em><\/p>\n

I was able to ask a few questions of Troy Parfitt<\/a>, a Canadian author and ten-year resident of Taiwan, which he took the time to answer in great detail. Some of the answers are controversial, and there are no punches held. Whether you agree or disagree, I would love to hear what you think in the comment section below.<\/p>\n

How would the country be different if China’s civil war had a different result?<\/h3>\n

It\u2019s impossible to say, but it\u2019s fun to speculate, so here goes.<\/p>\n

The Nationalists would have had to choose between Moscow and Washington, so they would have faced pressure from the U.S. to democratize. At the same time, the Americans were fed up with Chiang Kai-shek and his chums, who Truman labelled \u201cgrafters and crooks,\u201d thus ending the spell some historians have suggested Roosevelt was under. It would be nice to think Chiang and his Nationalists would have done what they finally did in Taiwan, i.e. create an open society, but that seems unlikely, not least of all because the situation on Taiwan was unique, or that Chiang himself remained in charge until his death. Mao Zedong, in typical fashion, said the Nationalist Party was like a toilet that, no matter how many times flushed, still stank. Mao was right. The Nationalists were horrible.<\/p>\n

The Chinese Nationalist Party was primarily a business, a lot like the mob. It\u2019s true it wasn\u2019t nearly as brutal as the Chinese Communist Party turned out to be, meaning the Nationalists weren\u2019t into grand-scale political movements or murdering thousands of so-called rightists or capitalist roaders. Instead, they were extortionists, hideous carpet baggers, which is largely the reason so many stopped supporting them after the defeat of the Japanese.<\/p>\n

\"Chiang
Chiang Kai-Shek<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I suppose what I\u2019m trying to say is: it\u2019s too complex a question to hypothesize about in detail, and I think a lot depends on how much America would have twisted Chiang\u2019s arm. Would the generalissimo have stopped selling opium to raise funds? Would he have eliminated the warlords? Would he have ceased shaking down the business community and the wealthy and set about building a decent society? Would he have made Sun Yat-sen\u2019s \u2018three principles\u2019 the foundation of that society? In other words, would China have democratized? Or would Chiang have continued in his bad old ways? Remember, his bad old ways, like his connections to the underworld, remained with him his entire life. And it\u2019s important to bear in mind that he was a criminal with a lengthy record, which included a count of murder. And he was surrounded by criminals. That\u2019s what the Nationalists were: organized crime with khaki uniforms.<\/p>\n

One might assume it would have been difficult for the Nationalists to botch things as badly as the Communists did, but if anyone could screw things up, it was Chiang Kai-shek. Ruling Taiwan with an iron fist was easy because it was small, developed, and intact, but China was colossal, backward, and broken. I don\u2019t believe Chiang Kai-shek was capable of change. He was a hopeless fascist, an impossible control freak. But who knows? Maybe after he died, there would have been some kind of opening up and we wouldn\u2019t see the sorry political situation that exists in China today.<\/p>\n

What’s your favorite thing about China?<\/h3>\n

Either kung pao chicken or petite, almond eyes women. Just kidding. Because of the polemical nature of my book, and its title, some people think I hated my way through China, but that\u2019s not so. Although I got frustrated, and even abandoned the third leg of my journey, and although it\u2019s true that I take issue with aspects of Chinese culture and certain \u201cnational beliefs,\u201d there are things I like about the place.<\/p>\n

I like Beijing, for instance. Having lived in a different Chinese capital for so long, it was fascinating to compare Beijing to Taipei, and Taipei, though friendlier and more comfortable to live in, doesn\u2019t hold a candle to Beijing culturally or historically. Walking around the hutong is like walking back in time and you can practically feel the history. Two years before I wrote about Beijing, I spent five weeks there and got a decent feel for it. It\u2019s an interesting city. There\u2019s no getting around that, and I\u2019d take it over Shanghai any day. So perhaps Beijing is my favorite thing about China.<\/p>\n

\"Beijing
A crowded Beijing street, bustling with daytime activity<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Or perhaps it\u2019s China\u2019s exoticness. To me, China is still an exceedingly exotic place. It is, of course, so very different from the West, and I\u2019m fascinated by cultural differences, of which China\u2019s got no shortage. It\u2019s also an intriguing place to travel around. I still think about my time spent traveling in the northeast during winter.<\/p>\n

There’s been a lot of recent conjecture about China’s faltering economy – where do you think China will be on this issue in the coming years? Will it worsen?<\/h3>\n

Well, I\u2019m not an economist, so I don\u2019t feel qualified to say much about China\u2019s economy, and I don\u2019t discuss it a lot in my book, except to say that it\u2019s generally very impressive, or so economists think, and now let\u2019s take a look at everything else. However, I recently read an informative if poorly penned book about China\u2019s economy called Red Capitalism, which explains how China is sitting on mountains of concealed debt. The state-owned banks lend to the state-owned enterprises which often default on payments, but the government just strikes the debt off the balance sheet and starts the lending process again to meet its targets. The book reads like an extended journal article that never got peer-reviewed, but it helped me understand how China\u2019s economy functions and confirmed what I had already gathered. There\u2019s so much corruption in China. How could the situation be otherwise? As to what will happen in the future, I have no idea and I\u2019m guessing no one else does either. People say China is the world\u2019s biggest bubble, but who really knows? Despite my book\u2019s title, I\u2019m not one for futurology. In part, the title is meant to mock the China-is-so-amazing titles we\u2019ve been seeing more of. Anyway, to get an idea of where China\u2019s economy is headed, I guess it\u2019d be a good idea to read the opinions of a few credible economists.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d like to add that I think analysis about China tends to be one-dimensional, in that people often think China\u2019s economy is the sole determiner of whether it sinks or swims, but nations are about much more than the bottom line. For example, sociocultural context often gets glossed over or ignored during China debates.<\/p>\n

What is the single greatest myth that you believe people have about China?<\/h3>\n

I think there are two big ones: that China knows something other nations don\u2019t and that China\u2019s unknowable. I think these beliefs are virtually ancient and reside in the psyches of Western and non-Chinese people. You read about this in history books: Westerners convinced that China is an enlightened, advanced civilization only to land there and realize that, in some ways, it\u2019s still in the Stone Age. Jonathan Spence wrote a book about naive foreigners in China called To Change China, which I enjoyed. Today, people still believe Chinese society is superior, never mind that there is heaps of evidence pointing to its being way down the list in terms of social progress, etc. Consider, if you will, the most recent (2011) United Nations\u2019 human development index, which measures literacy, education, quality of life, living standards, and life expectancy. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan all have respectable positions within the top 22, but China? It\u2019s 101st <\/sup>, in danger, perhaps, of being overtaken by the Philippines.<\/p>\n

\"Confucius\"<\/p>\n

This summer, I was watching news from the United States and secondary school students were being asked for their opinions about China. Many said it had a far better education system than America\u2019s. Adults believe tosh like this, too, though books such as Battle Hymn of Tiger Mother don\u2019t help. In my book, I argue that if Chinese education were ever adopted by the West, it would soon be labeled institutionalized child abuse. But hey, people will believe anything. Not even the tens of thousands of Chinese students matriculating abroad, or the fact that most of the world\u2019s top universities are in the West, mainly America, can obliterate the myth that Chinese education is better. China-knows-something-other-nations-don\u2019t is similar to the China-is-dynamic line. Dynamic is not a word I would use to describe China. For starters, there seems to be an abhorrence for excellence there.<\/p>\n

The China-knows-something-other-nations-don\u2019t myth is connected to the China-is-inscrutable one. China is mysterious, in possession of some sort of elusive knowledge and it\u2019s a nation that cannot be figured out. But it can be figured out. Any nation or culture can, inasmuch as we can ever figure out anything. China is just a country, with a culture, history, mindset, belief system, etc. Sure, there is diversity, but there is much more diversity in, say, Scotland, where I\u2019m living now. And China\u2019s lack of diversity makes it all the more knowable. China is not mysterious or inscrutable at all.<\/p>\n

And it can seem that nearly everything Westerners think about China is a myth. Look at the many myths just about Mandarin: that the spoken language is monosyllabic; that there are several dialects underpinned by a common writing system; that the writing system is comprised of pictograms; that you need to know about 2,000 pictograms to read a newspaper. And even things Western people seem to know for certain about China are wrong: that there was a massacre in Tiananmen Square, or that there is a Great Wall. It seems that the only non-Chinese who know anything meaningful about China, apart from academics, are long-term expats, but their voices are seldom heard, or they don\u2019t make themselves heard. Or they\u2019re like the I\u2019m-making-a-difference\/everything-is-fine-here characters from Spence\u2019s book and therefore aren\u2019t taken seriously by those who like to apply a dollop of critical analysis to the China discussion.<\/p>\n

Taiwan and Hong Kong are to China like\u2026 (insert your metaphor here)<\/h3>\n

… abused children who flee and make something of themselves are to psychotic parents. The children have liberated themselves and now live relatively normal lives. The other children, the ones who didn\u2019t escape, aren\u2019t fully functioning, and the whole neighborhood can see the disparity.<\/p>\n

\"Hong
Hong Kong’s skyskraper-filled Central district<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Unfortunately for the people of Hong Kong, they\u2019ve been brought back into the family fold. However, the metaphor doesn\u2019t extend to Taiwan. Taiwan, though it has shamed the \u201cnational family\u201d (what the Chinese word for country directly translates to) by colluding with foreigners and abandoning the venerable tradition of authoritarianism, is a whole other story.<\/p>\n

Unlike Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan was never really part of China, but rather part of the Qing dynasty, and for a mere ten years (1885-1895). The Qing, as Han Chinese are quick to remind, were not Chinese, but brutal, corrupt, and ineffective foreign rulers. Chinese people still commemorate the Qing, or Manchu, demise, and rightfully so. But the CCP holds that Taiwan is part of China and always has been, never mind that under the Qing, emigration to Taiwan was banned because the island was a foreign territory. The first country to establish governmental controls on Taiwan was the Netherlands and no one ruled it completely prior to the Nationalists except for the Japanese, partly because half the island was controlled by savage head-hunters.<\/p>\n

Prior to the Nationalists \u201cstrategic retreat,\u201d Mao said he didn\u2019t consider Taiwan one of China\u2019s lost territories. But after the Nationalists decamped, Mao changed his tune. The CCP, aware that once you start a lie, you have to maintain it, has been singing that tune ever since. In my book, I write that as a general rule of the thumb in the Chinese world, the more often you hear something, the more you can assume to be untrue. But that\u2019s not really a revelation. Astute Chinese know that. Just last week, a Chinese national said to me, \u2018The government said X number of people died in (some man-made disaster), so we knew the number must have been much higher.\u2019 But getting back to Taiwan, I would like to add that the lie exists on both sides of the strait. The very notion of a \u201cmainland\u201d China vis-\u00e0-vis Taiwan is nonsense. There may be a mainland China regarding Hong Kong and Macau, but not Taiwan. Sixty three years later, the Communists and Nationalists are still churning out the propaganda. But I\u2019m very biased toward Taiwan. I admit it. I think it represents a major step forward for Chinese civilization.<\/p>\n

How do you think American fear over China’s economic rise differs from the economic rise of Japan during the 1980’s? Do you think we’ll see a similar crash?<\/h3>\n

Americans aren\u2019t smashing Chinese cars with sledgehammers or invoking the Korean War, so that\u2019s good, but I think there is overlap. It seems America always needs a rival, which might have something to do with its sporting culture. American analysis of China is, sadly, often about as profound as its sports coverage. \u2018China cuts America\u2019s lead to 13. Fourth quarter coming right up.\u2019 Sure, there\u2019s intelligent literature and discussion on the subject, but considering how worried about China Americans claim to be, generally speaking, they seem to know bugger all about the country. Some are figuring it out, though.<\/p>\n

This summer, I sold a lot of books to American tourists in my hometown in Canada and several told me that, in their field, they\u2019d learned the hard way not to use Chinese parts. The last time I brought brakes for my car, the clerk told me the place of manufacture: Detroit, Sweden (if I recall), and China. The\u00a0 man said, under his breath, \u201cAnd you don\u2019t want the last ones.\u201d I think anecdotes like mine and those of the American tourists can be more revealing than the macrocosmic fluff you see on American news. There is good print media in the US, but a lack of China knowledge still seems to prevail. Even Charlie Rose has superficial China discussions, disappointing because his show is possibly the most intelligent one America produces.<\/p>\n

\"China<\/p>\n

There is, however, a big difference between America\u2019s past and present rivalries. The Americans at least understood the Japanese, in a sense, because the Japanese were brazen capitalists. But China is confusing because it\u2019s nominally communist, so I think Americans see it as a threat to their way of life. Japan was also on much friendlier terms with the US, and of course the Americans didn\u2019t have to worry about the Japanese militarily. But China\u2019s military intentions remain unclear. Moreover, the Chinese government lacks the maturity, intelligence, and foresight to deal with the United States or other developed countries sincerely. China prefers befriending oppressive states with offices staffed by thugs and thieves. There are cheerleaders who think this strategy is clever. It is anything but. As for an economic crash, again, I\u2019m sorry. I have no idea.<\/p>\n

What are your top 5 China books that led you to your current beliefs?<\/h3>\n

The book that first ignited my China interest was Sterling Seagrave\u2019s The Soong Dynasty<\/em>. At the time I read it, I was teaching at a public high school in Taipei that had, in every classroom, portraits of Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek. After reading that book, I couldn\u2019t look at their mugs without smirking or grimacing. I was pretty much hooked on China books after that, and got to know the China sections of Taiwanese bookstores intimately.<\/p>\n

\"Lu
Lu Xun’s “True Story of Ah-Q”<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It\u2019s hard to say which books shaped my beliefs. I think they worked more to reinforce beliefs I\u2019d obtained through observation, but I\u2019d have to say The Ugly Chinaman<\/em> and the Crisis of Chinese Culture<\/em> by Bo Yang along with The True Story of Ah-Q<\/em> by Lu Xun<\/a>. Lu Xun\u2019s book is timeless and the national characteristics he was attempting to highlight and ridicule are still present. Another book that really spoke to me was Li Zhi Shui\u2019s The Private Life of Chairman Mao<\/em>. Sure, the Communists aren\u2019t nearly as bad as they were, but that heartlessness, that cold indifference and cruelty embodied by the Helmsman still exists. Just look at the government\u2019s persecution of dissidents. Look at its treatment of Ai Wei Wei. Regard its utter disregard for human rights. And the symbol of that brutal authoritarianism is everywhere to see, on nearly every bank note.<\/p>\n

People still tout the 70\/30 formula or the \u201cfundamentally-good\u201d line when asked about Mao, and hordes of tourists get their photo snapped in front of Mao\u2019s portrait at Tiananmen Square and in front of his statue in Shaoshan, Hunan province, his birthplace. Mao Zedong was responsible for tens of millions of deaths, yet he remains a national hero. What does that say about a country? Mind, you\u2019ve got a similar situation in Taiwan. Chiang and Sun, the dictator and the fool, are still on the coins and bills. They\u2019re not as popular as Hello Kitty, but they\u2019re popular enough.<\/p>\n

What do you make of the Diaoyu Island dispute?<\/h3>\n

The issue is complicated, but I\u2019m going to stand by my general rule of thumb: the Chinese Communist Party says, vocally and repeatedly, that the islands belong to China, therefore they almost certainly don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a sad fact that all nations can squabble and threaten about something as trifling as a few miserable rocks, but the dispute between China and Japan, at least as far as China goes, is not really about who owns those rocks. Rather, it mainly has to do with the past. With China, the angry present is almost always about the past, and revenge. Mind you, the Chinese have a legitimate reason to hate Japan, but rioting, like people recently did in Shenzhen, is not the way to deal with it. Not that I know what it is.<\/p>\n

Again, the situation can be distilled to China\u2019s crippling lack of critical thinking, self-awareness, and reflection. Rather than despise Japan, as the CCP encourages its citizens to do, people might want to ask why China did so little to repel the Japanese during the war. Why did the Nationalists refuse, in some instances, to even remove packaging from equipment donated by the West? Why did they hoard medical supplies and sell them on the black market? Why did China go to war against the US and its allies (in Korea) after the US and its allies defeated Japan and assisted China the best they could? Why does China continue to loath the US and the West despite attempts to assist China during that time? Why did neither the Communists nor the Nationalists ever ask Japan for war reparations? Why were the two Chinese sides more intent on fighting each other than fighting a common and awful enemy?<\/p>\n

But, no. There will be no such questions. The government doesn\u2019t allow or create the conditions for them. Its objective is to focus its citizenry\u2019s attention on few, most likely, foreign islands, thereby drawing attention away from China\u2019s myriad domestic problems. China is also likely revealing why it has purchased its \u201cdefensive\u201d aircraft carrier. China is a bad actor, a terrible bluffer. It\u2019s showing its cards, too dim to realize everyone can see them, and too dense to grasp that its fiercest enemy is, and always has always been, itself.<\/p>\n

I understand that you’ve been to Chengdu before \u00a0– what was your impression of it?<\/h3>\n

Oh, this is a trick question. Should I say I loved every minute of it? No, I\u2019ll be honest.<\/p>\n

\"Chengdu
Chengdu at night<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I\u2019d just come from Lhasa by plane, and after being in what was a poor but gorgeous place, I was back in another dreary, grey, polluted Chinese city with rubbish-strewn, spittle-flecked sidewalks and car-choked thoroughfares. I remember smelling the pollution in the airport\u2019s baggage-claim area and walking outside to take a bus. The seat I got had piss on it and as we drove along a dismal road I thought, \u2018This place looks like hell.\u2019<\/p>\n

I didn\u2019t like the panda prison, and it didn\u2019t help that I later got tailed by a couple of undercover cops. But the food in Chengdu was good, the Green Ram Temple was okay, and I rather enjoyed the park \u2013 forgot its name \u2013 where people rent boats and all the old guys sit around in wife-beaters smoking and drinking green tea.<\/p>\n

There was ghastly pollution when I was there, good in a way, because it forced me to be creative in describing it. How many ways are there to describe pollution? China ought to challenge you regarding that question. Paul Theroux thought Chengdu was uninspiring when he was there in the eighties, so at least it\u2019s consistent. I forget what Colin Thubron had to say about it in his Behind the Wall.<\/p>\n

Anyhow, I hope I haven\u2019t insulted your adopted home town. My former adopted home town had some atrocious pollution days, too. There\u2019s too much pollution in Asia, generally. That\u2019s one thing I don\u2019t miss. When people in Canada complained about pollution, I always wanted to laugh. I\u2019ve been in the UK for three months and haven\u2019t seen any real pollution at all.<\/p>\n

Closing Thoughts<\/h2>\n

If you aren’t familiar with Troy’s book, Why China Will Never Rule the World<\/em>\u00a0(which is a counterpoint to When China Rules the World<\/a><\/em>), check it out on Amazon here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If you have any thoughts on this interview, leave them below!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nine questions about China’s future with Troy Parfitt, author of “Why China Will Never Rule the World”. 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