- This topic has 7 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 12 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Was having a chat with a few people in a different post about “where China is going” (for it is certainly moving in some direction) The recent train incident has got me thinking.
Given the many decades of combined experience users of the site have, I’d be really interested to get some thoughts from Westerners on the ground about the next decade. Are there any major economic, social and/or political changes you see round the corner? Many now argue that China will be no. 1 economy come 2019, but others actually there seem more sceptical.
Will there be a property bubble burst, for example? I’ve read that there are many demographic problems coming up because of the 1 child policy, but is there a feeling this will be a genuine problem or a surmountable inconvenience?
Perhaps worth talking about Chengdu as a city if you’re not sure about China as a country.
You should definitely check out this post if you haven’t already: Interview with Steven Dicksinson of China Law Blog, this is exactly the topic that he spoke about and Steve and his colleague Dan are probably among the most knowledgeable people you can find regarding China’s development.
China might be the world’s top economy by 2019 if you measure just by GDP but the economy is still very undeveloped with per capita income still at a tiny fraction of developed Western countries. It will continue to grow and develop and somewhere along the line there will be an economic crash accompanied by social unrest. It’s difficult to say when this will happen but I don’t think many people doubt that it is coming at some point.
As far as Chengdu itself goes, it is developing at absolute full clip right now. Chengdu is taking off. There are only a handful of places on earth seeing the rate of growth that Chengdu has been experiencing over the last few years. It’s a great place for us all to be, considering the emerging markets and opportunities here. Chengdu is a much different place now than it was when I came here in 2005.
If the next 10 years see the same kind of growth that we’ve seen in the last 10 years, that will be incredible. Because the last ten years of growth and development are much easier to establish than the next ten since the urban economic baseline has grown so much.
Soon I Will Be Invincible.
Oh, sorry, I thought the thread was “what book are you currently reading?”. My mistake. Great book BTW
Charlie made a great point on where China is headed. Here is another convincing fact on Chengdu – over 200 Fortune 500 companies have already established their business operations or manufacturers in Chengdu within the past decade.
If you wikipedia Chengdu Metro, the site tells you there are 7 lines in total according to the construction plan, including line 1 opened last year. As I was recently told by locals, the government has already confirmed on local newspaper that the Metro system will have at least eight lines. The growth is unbelievable.
Food for thought:
China needs to create 25 million new jobs per year.
The inland/farmland is always in supply of low wage workers.
Yet within the farmland/inland, there are just the elderly and young kids, no one will keep the farmland.
The different ‘class,’ born in cities, are always going to have more perks than those who comes to the cities for opportunities (health care, insurance ect ect).
Statistically, this is a bad sign.
This is a debate I keep hearing, and keep being party to, and still I feel as though there aren’t any hard and fast answers to the many questions regarding China’s future development and sustainability. It would be a different story if China was under orderly/democratic rule, as chances are this would take away the lateral grey area that exists within areas such as property development. The government has huge headroom to stave off any long term failure of the market, and the profits being made by developers are a cushion to any potential loss in market values in the shorter term, which just leaves the question of who’s buying. There’s definitely an adjustment ahead, but I find it impossible to define exactly what that might be when we have (for example) 8 metro lines planned in Chengdu, with development proposed far and wide across these routes. This city alone will be generating huge numbers of employment for many years ahead, and while not each of these workers will be ready to buy into the emerging property market, they will in part be helping to support it indirectly. That said, any talk of a ‘bubble’ is premature to say the least.
Chengdu is one of the most fascinating places to be in the world right now, with unparalleled opportunies ahead. I came here from Vancouver, post Winter Olympics boom, and the contrast between the two is stark. Even relatively under developed cities in the West are struggling to maintain a status quo, whilst China is looking to distant horizons, making bold steps to reach perpetually outward.
I for one feel very privileged to be here at this moment in time.
No matter how fast China’s developing and transforming, future sustainability will always be a heated discussion for loads of issues in many existing areas. But personally, no problem isn’t gonna be resolved instantly as we all know; perhaps, more often foreigners or foreign firms bring it into conversation or talk about it at different circumstances, more Chinese people would have to push themselves to adjust the process and understand its importance. I mean, the awareness of sustainable development for individuals as well as the gov is the key. My hope is that more Chinese or Chengdunese realize this before “oops, it’s too late.”
- The forum ‘General Discussion’ is closed to new topics and replies.